2008 May | sheghan's Blog

May 29, 2008

Lottery Math, Is it better to play 50 dollars one week, or one dollar for fifty weeks?

Filed under: lotto, winning the lotto — sheghan @ 2:03 am

The odds of a “Lotto” style lottery can be found with the formula: n! / (n - r)! r! where n is the highest numbered ball and r is the number of balls chosen. This is called in math a combination. An easier way to think about it is if there are 40 balls and 6 are chosen, there are 40 possible numbers that can come up first, leaving 39 that can come up second, then 38, 37, 36, and finally 35 on the final number. To find out how many numbers that is you multiply 40 ×39 ×38 ×37 ×36 × 35 = 2,763,633,600 making the odds 2 and a half billion to one.

Pretty slim odds, but luckily the order of the balls does not matter, so we can divide this number by how many ways these numbers can be arranged. There are six possibilities for the first ball, five for the second, 4 for the third, 3, 2, and one left over. That is 6 × 5 × 4 × 3 × 2 × 1 = 720 So, the odds are 2,763,633,600 ÷ 720 = 3,838,380 to one.If I put $50 on one lottery, the odds of winning are 3,838,380 ÷ 50 = 76767.6 to one. That is the easy part.

The hard part is calculating the odds of winning if I put $1 on 50 lotteries. To do this we have to convert to probabilities. A probability is a number between 1 and 0. 1 means a perfect chance, 0 means no chance at all. The probability of winning the lottery with one dollar is 1 ÷ 3,838,380 = 0.0000002605… in other words, very small. The probability of winning the lottery with 50 dollars is 1 ÷ 76767.6 = 0.0000130263288…

Just for your information, the probability of winning twice in a row is this number squared which is 0.00000000000006. This is not very useful information except that we can use this formula in reverse to get what we want. The cool thing about probabilities, as opposed to odds, is that the probability of winning is one minus the probability of losing. This leads us to a way of calculating what we want by using a double negative. The probability of winning at least once in 50 tries is the same as the probability of not losing 50 times in a row.The probability of losing is 1 - 0.0000002605… = 0.9999997394…The probability of losing 50 times in a row is 0.9999997394… to the 50^th power = 0.99998697…

The probability of not losing 50 times in a row is 1 - 0.99998697… = 0.0000130262457…

So, since the probability of winning at least once in 50 tries is 0.0000130262457… and the probability of winning one lottery with 50 dollars is 0.0000130263288… The odds are very very slightly more favorable by playing all 50 dollars in one lottery than spreading it out among 50 lotteries.

Expected Return

Another way to look at lotteries is with expected returns. This gives another sleight advantage to putting 50 dollars on a single lottery when you wait for the jackpot to exceed the odds of winning. As stated in the Glossary, under the category of Sucker Bet, the formula is: EXPECTED RETURN = POTENTIAL WINNING * PROBABILITY OF WINNING - POTENTIAL COST * PROBABILITY OF LOSING.

Given the lottery above, if the jackpot starts at $1 million, the potential winning is 1 million, the probability of winning is 0.0000002605…, the potential cost is $1, and as many people have mentioned in response, the probability of losing is 1!

The expected return is 0.2605 - 1 = -0.7395, or a loss of 74 cents. What is not realized is that for every dollar put into the lottery at least 50 cents go to the state general fund, with some states taking as many as 70 cents on the dollar. A better expected return can be found by waiting for the jackpot to exceed $3,838,380. A four million dollar jackpot would have an expected gain of 4 cents.

The Best way to play the Lottery

Still, with the likelihood of winning being so small, you are better off burning your money, or giving it to charity. Lottery is a voluntary tax. I give enough to taxes, thank you very much. If my money is going to benefit someone else, it will be someone of my choosing.

Power Ball

On July 29, 1998 the 20 state Power Ball lottery gave away a record $250,000,000 or a quarter of a billion dollars. The odds of winning are around 80 million to 1 per ticket. Even if you decide to take it in a lump sum, it is worth $130 million.

Such gigantic sums of money are tempting lots of people. People are using their rent checks and paychecks to buy hundreds of tickets in an attempt to better their odds.

Sure every dollar you spend increases your chances of winning, but each increase is minor. Spending $2 increases your chances from 80 million:1 to 40 million:1.

Yeah you doubled your chances, but as we learned in elementary 2 times 0 is 0, so it follows that 2 times almost 0 is also almost 0.

The odds are calculated as follows:
There are 49 white balls in which 5 are chosen, the order does not matter. Then one of 42 red balls is chosen. Thus we have the formula:

Here is a better way to play the lottery, write down 5 numbers between 1 and 49, then pick a Powerball number between 1 and 42 (you can reuse any of the previous 5 or pick another number). Don’t buy a ticket, then when the drawing is held, and your numbers don’t match, you can congratulate yourself for saving a dollar.

Next article we will discuss some lotto winners and how they spend their fortune….or misfortune.

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May 26, 2008

Water Powered Car Plans - Would You Want To Beat The Gas Price?

Filed under: fuel, Gas, Water4Gas — sheghan @ 4:35 am

Water working as a fuel… isn’t the very idea amazing. But if you take out some time to do extensive research work, you will be astonished to find that several individuals have designed water powered car plans at different points of time. Water was considered as a life saver. But very soon it will be regarded as a cost effective substitute for petroleum and other automotive fuels.

A question may arise in your mind, that if so many people have experimented with water powered cars, then why are we still making use of petroleum based fuel? Providing a relevant answer to the question might not be possible at this point of time. But we have to keep in mind that new ideas need time to get accepted. Water powered car plans are a miracle in itself. Lack of acceptance is a major drawback in its implementation procedure.

In the early nineties a Bolivian inventor acquired a patent for his unique creation: Pacheco Bi- Polar Auto electric Hydrogen Generator. The inventor had shown it practically that his water powered engine can run cars, flashlight, lawn mower and even a boat. He had also gone to the extent of providing energy to an entire house by his water powered gadget.

Click on the Picture To Learn More!

What actually happens in a water powered car is very simple. Water is broken into its components viz. hydrogen and oxygen. The hydrogen part is used to provide energy to the required device. This is neither a myth nor a lie. Water powered generators can make things work and provide you with the required energy.

We are facing a crunch to find substitute fuels. But the situation can be tackled if this plan is implemented. Remember the way, the creation of Wright brothers were signed off as hoax. But at last the truth had to be accepted that the two bicycle repairmen have developed the first aircraft of the world. Similarly water powered car plans will get their acceptance in the near future.

By: Andreas Lee

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Running Your Car On Water??

Filed under: fuel, Gas — sheghan @ 4:13 am

The steadily rising prices of fuel and the ever-increasing air pollution situation around the world, gives a growing need for alternative fuel usage all over the world. But the biggest limitation so far has been the lack of proper means to integrate it into mainframe transport system without burning a hole in the pocket. While there are many vehicles running on alternative energy sources such as electricity powered cars and so on, the stark reality is that most of them are inefficient and rather cumbersome as compared to the vehicles running on conventional fuel. However, you can take a lead ahead of your friends and take the road to higher mileage and loss pollution with the aid of the tools given on Water4Gas.

The site comes up as a big boon to all those troubled by the ongoing fuel crisis in the world. The information provided in the site is in the form of a comprehensive e-book that guides you on making use of water in place of traditional fuel for your vehicle. The basic fundamental behind this is pretty simple indeed and involves using the electricity from the battery to split up water molecules into discrete HHO gas molecules that may then be used to produce the required electricity that drives the vehicle. While this may sound complicated, it a simple process that involves a couple of hours of hard work and a few tools which would not set you back by a large amount. The guide contains all the information you need in this regard along with plenty of extra additions such as possible IRS benefits and other ways to increase efficiency and mileage from your vehicle.

Using water instead of fuels makes traveling much more cheaper. Not only is water cheaper on a per liter basis, it also provides extra mileage to the liter. Experiments have shown that cars running on water save hundreds of dollars of fuel costs over a period of time and since the only by product is water; you can also contribute your bit to mother nature by switching over to water. So, perhaps your next long trip across the beaches and mountains could be made with the aid of such a system returning better mileage to the gallon.

By: beefandy1